Most token launches distribute only a fraction of the eventual supply at the start. The rest is released on a published schedule, and those dates are among the few genuinely predictable supply events in the market.
The circulating float starts artificially small
At launch, team allocations, investor tranches, treasury reserves and ecosystem funds are locked, leaving a small tradeable portion.
A small float means modest buying pressure produces a large price move, and the resulting valuation is applied to the entire supply including everything locked.
That valuation is what the locked holders will eventually be measuring their own decision against, and it was set by a thin market.
Cost basis differs enormously between holders
Early backers acquired tokens at a fraction of the launch price, sometimes at a small fraction, while public buyers paid the market.
A price that represents a loss for one group can represent a large multiple for the other, so the same chart supports opposite decisions.
Unlocks therefore introduce sellers who remain profitable at prices where existing holders would be crystallising a loss.
Cliffs concentrate the effect
Schedules commonly include a cliff, where nothing vests for a period and then a substantial tranche unlocks at once.
The market can see the date coming, and positioning ahead of it often moves the price before any token has actually been released.
Linear vesting after the cliff spreads the remainder more evenly, which is why the first cliff usually produces the sharpest reaction.
Unlocked is not the same as sold
Tokens becoming transferable does not mean they are being sold, and recipients often stake, lend or simply hold them.
Following where unlocked tokens move afterwards gives a better picture than the unlock itself, since a transfer to an exchange means something different from a transfer to a staking contract.
Some projects negotiate extended lockups or over-the-counter placements to avoid open-market pressure, which changes the effect without changing the schedule.
Emissions are a separate ongoing supply
Beyond vesting, many protocols issue new tokens continuously as rewards for staking, liquidity provision or usage.
That flow is steady rather than lumpy, and recipients frequently sell it immediately because they hold it as income rather than as a position.
Assessing supply pressure requires adding both together, since a project with modest unlocks and heavy emissions can face more persistent selling than one with the opposite profile.